We Just Lost the Moon

 Sun Tzu wrote his military treatise The Art of War on bamboo strips in the 5th century BCE. That's how long it's been accepted military strategy to take the high ground. 

The ancient Chinese general put it this way: "He who occupies the field of battle first and awaits his enemy is at ease; he who comes later and rushes into battle is weary." This might be the most obvious recommendation in The Art of War: control the battlefield before the enemy even gets there, you likely win the battle.

It's how a smaller Roman force defeated 30,000 Celtic tribesman in 83 CE in the Battle of Mons Graupius. Or how the Anglo Saxon army was able to fend off the Normans in the Battle of Hastings. It's a big reason the Union army defeated the Confederates at Gettysburg. The victor controlled the high ground. Of course, in the nuclear age, where nations can destroy each other from afar, the high ground isn't so important. Or maybe it is -- you just have to look higher.

In 1957, when the Soviet Union launched Sputnik 1, we all started looking much higher. The space race had begun. In recent years, it's heated up. By 2008, both the U.S. and China had proven the ability to shoot down satellites. By 2021, nearly every major super power had established a Space Command, or in the case of the United States, a Space Force. 

Russia and the U.S. now both conduct war games in space, testing satellite jamming and satellite defense capabilities. China is rapidly increasing the number of military satellites it has in orbit. India just joined the effort to militarize space, establishing its own Integrated Defense Space Agency.

In a world where Earth's orbit is already crowded with military satellites, what exactly is the high ground? What territory can be controlled that would offer strategic advantage in the case of, well, for lack of a better term, the coming Star Wars? 

As early as 1959, proposed under the name Project Horizon, the U.S. Army's answer was the Moon. Even then, officials called a lunar base "of critical importance to the U.S. army of the future". And this was before we'd even landed anyone there. 

Back then, the push to get to the Moon was in response to the Soviet's success launching the first satellite into space. But the idea makes even more sense as technology has advanced. The ability to affect the Earth from the Moon is no longer science fiction. In maybe the most frightening case, a nuclear base on the lunar surface could launch unstoppable and devastating attacks, turning Earth's natural satellite into a literal Death Star. 

Nukes wouldn't have to reach Earth to cause serious damage. Explosions in orbit could produce massive electromagnic pulses knocking out energy grids and critical infrastructure, bringing entire nations to a halt and leaving them vulnerable to further attacks. Water, power, communication, and transportation systems could be shut down at the whim of those who controlled the lunar base above us.

At the very least, establishing a manned Moon base allows unfettered launches of satellites and satellite killers. 

But to even consider this, you have to be a nation with enormous resources. You need to be able to build and launch heavy-lift rockets that land cargo and human beings on the Moon. This requires the manufacturing and technological abilities of NASA or SpaceX. You need the facilities to launch rockets carrying millions of pounds of fuel. Add to that, you need experts in aerospace engineering to build and maintain landers and orbiters and rovers, and navigation systems.  The mission requires hundreds of billions of dollars and world class scientists. Only five nations -- or groups of nations -- can even consider it: the United States, China, Russia, the EU, and recently India. 

And we just found out the two nations considered enemies of the West are doing more than considering it. They're jumping in. 

Russia just signed a deal with China to build a nuclear power plant on the Moon. They're actually doing it. We're no longer in the theoretical world. Just as Sputnik was the first satellite in space, it may well be Russian and Chinese flags on the first working power plant on the Moon. The stated goal of the program is not military, of course. According to the agreement, the Russian reactor will power a Lunar Research Station, jointly led by China and Russia. It's targeted for completion in 2036. Seventeen countries have agreed to participate by sending scientists there to work, including Egypt, Pakistan, Venezuela, Thailand and South Africa. Construction will start when China's 2028 Chang'e-8 mission lands Chinese astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time in history.

NASA never intended to cede the "high ground" when it comes to the Moon. The agency has a plan to establish a sustainable human presence on the Moon. The plan includes a space station orbiting the Moon, providing easy access to the surface. It's called the Lunar Gateway. And unlike the Chinese-Russian proposal, construction on NASA's version has already begun. In April of this year NASA completed work on the first module for the space station, called the HALO - Habitation and Logistics Outpost. This would serve as a living and working space for astronauts aboard the station. The plan targets the Lunar Gateway to be orbiting the Moon by 2027.

Except the Lunar Gateway just got cancelled. NASA's 2026 budget - if approved -- ends the project. In fairness, the budget does move the agency's focus to landing humans on Mars. But even if that is successful, humans on Mars offer no protection from an enemy presence on the much closer lunar surface.

We hope China enjoys the high ground in the next battle.